Expert Analysis on Post-Pandemic Recovery, Geopolitical Impacts, and Air Serbia’s Strategic Growth
By Dragan Nikolić
Kurt Hofmann, a renowned aviation expert and journalist with nearly three decades of experience, shares his insights into the rapidly evolving aviation landscape. In this interview, Hofmann discusses the lingering effects of the pandemic on air traffic, the geopolitical challenges of reshaping flight routes, and the strategic positioning of airlines in the Western Balkans. With a focus on Air Serbia’s intercontinental expansion, Tirana Airport’s growth, and the region’s untapped potential, Hofmann offers a compelling analysis of how the industry adapts to global challenges and seizes emerging opportunities.
Although several years have passed since the coronavirus pandemic, air traffic still seems to be experiencing some lingering effects. What has changed compared to the pre-pandemic period?
Some regions in the world reached pre-COVID levels earlier, and some are still behind this capacity, like Germany. The traffic there is still lower. We see that more aircraft are needed. This is related to the GTF engine problem of the A320neo fleet worldwide and to 787s or aircraft delivery delays, related to supply chain problems, strikes at Boeing, and so many other factors. Another challenge is worldwide geopolitical problems, such as those in Israel, Sudan, and Russia.
The war in Ukraine has significantly impacted air traffic. Who has been most affected by the interruption of the shortest route between Europe, China, and the Far East?
Of course, Finnair, because the former model to offer the shortest flight from Europe to Asia doesn’t work any more. So they have to find a new strategy. Many European carriers face high overfly costs, compared to the Chinese carriers, which use Russian airspace to Europe, and the European airlines regarding the sanction they have to detour. That’s why Lufthansa shut down Frankfurt – Beijing services, as they are no longer profitable. The closed airspace occurred ten years earlier, and detours without aircraft types like Boeing 787 or Airbus A350 would be economically impossible.
Air Serbia uses its opportunities and potential, making the most of its economic advantages over other European carriers by expanding its network to China
You are highly knowledgeable about aviation in Serbia and the region. How do you view the current situation in the Western Balkans?
Many airlines in Europe have yet to realise what opportunities are available in this region. Air Serbia makes the most of it, even though Belgrade airport’s capacity issues sometimes challenge them, or insufficient aircraft are available.
What are your thoughts on Air Serbia’s strategy and expansion into the intercontinental market, especially toward China? Has the Serbian national airline seized the right moment?
Air Serbia uses its opportunities and its potential. Given Serbia’s geographic position in southeastern Europe, the airline can make the most of its economic advantages over other European carriers by expanding its network to China. As mentioned, Since the closure of Russian airspace, flights to China have become challenging for European airlines as longer flying times increase operating costs. Meanwhile, Chinese carriers benefit from short flight times as they still overfly Russia. While Air Serbia circumvents Russia, Belgrade is positioned closer to China than most European capitals, making it relatively cheaper for Air Serbia to operate long-haul flights in East Asia. Diplomatic relations between China and Serbia have warmed considerably over the past 12 years since the SNS party was in power in Belgrade. China sees Serbia as one of its two most important European partners alongside Hungary. A free trade agreement and several other pacts between China and Serbia came into effect in July.
Tirana Airport has become the busiest in the Western Balkans. How do you explain this, and what are the expectations for further traffic growth?
I’m surprised that the airport was not busier earlier. Albania will definitely see much more growth in the future. I’m not so involved in their strategy, but they have been selling themselves below their value for a long time.
What are the prospects for Belgrade Airport? Is it developing appropriately, and could it be a significant hub in Europe?
It is good to see all the improvements which have been already made. But there are still many things to do. A total of 120 destinations are now offered from Belgrade. In the last two years, Air Serbia has opened 43 new destinations. In comparison, the Hungarian low-cost airline Wizz Air does not provide a single additional destination from Belgrade, only those where another operator already flies. This, in turn, shows that an airline which concentrates on point-to-point traffic finds it more difficult to open new destinations than, for example, the hub carrier with 80 destinations, and this generates transfer traffic. But we must also be critical of the airport operator Vinci. Air Serbia must constantly tell the airport to concentrate on expanding transfers over the next five years. This is because 35 per cent of all Air Serbia passengers change in Belgrade. Air Serbia is now focusing on increasing frequencies. They are waiting for approval to build a new lounge and premium check-in. There is excellent potential to increase Belgrade’s regional hub role further.
What topics will aviation journalists around the world be covering in the near future? Do you foresee any interesting developments?
Geopolitical challenges will have quite some impact on the daily airline business. The airlines have to become even more flexible, and we follow this. We follow the problems at Boeing, the late deliveries for 777X, and so on. We see the challenges if Airbus can deliver on time, what is going on in the cabin for passengers, the latest innovations, etc. In some parts of the world, airlines are expanding like crazy, for example, in India. Besides Latin America, Africa will become a huge market when the middle class increases.
Geopolitical challenges will impact the daily airline business, forcing airlines to become even more flexible
What is life like as an aviation journalist? Do you enjoy frequent travel and have a passion for flying?
I’ve been doing this for 29 years and still enjoy travelling around the world, doing between 40 and 50 airline CEO interviews every year, visiting Airbus, Embraer, or sometimes Boeing, and much more. The aviation business is different every day. The ongoing changes are permanent. And for sure, I love flying.
Kurt Hofmann is an Austrian aviation journalist with nearly 30 years of experience covering the global airline industry. He serves as a correspondent for Air Transport World and Aero International, and his work is featured in publications such as Aviation Week Network and The Travelers Club. Hofmann frequently discusses commercial aviation topics on Austrian, Swiss, and German television and radio channels. His extensive experience and insightful analyses have established him as a leading voice in aviation journalism.
