Montenegro and it’s accession to the EU – What can we expect?
Analysis by: Ljiljana Vujić
I sincerely doubt that there is the necessary will of all EU members to allow Montenegro to become a member in the near future – or should we be “full of enthusiasm” like Milojko Spajić?
Montenegrin Prime Minister Milojko Spajić is “full of enthusiasm” when it comes to the fact that Montenegro could become a member of the European Union by 2028. After the accession process was started this summer after a multi-year standstill, and by receiving a positive report on the fulfillment of temporary measures for chapters 23 and 24 (IBAR), Podgorica then closed three additional chapters in the negotiations. Let us remind you that the last time it closed its chapters in 2017, and the negotiations officially started in 2012. Union officials publicly support Milojko’s hope, claiming that, to paraphrase concisely, they are ready to help Montenegro in order to “move quickly”.
The President of the European Commission, Ursula von der Leyen from Podgorica, said that she was “impressed by the speed and quality of Montenegro’s progress”, saying that “membership in 2028 is an ambitious but achievable goal”. That Leyen toured the Western Balkans right at the start of her second term sends a message that the issue of enlargement is back on the Brussels agenda as a result of the war in Ukraine and the premature granting of candidate status to Ukraine, Georgia and Moldova in December.
European Union Enlargement Commissioner Marta Kos says that Montenegro is at the forefront of the integration process in relation to the countries of the region and that it has a real chance to complete accession negotiations during her mandate (until 2029). A proactive expansion policy has become an investment in one’s own security and stability because it is better to export stability than to risk importing instability.
However, can the Montenegrins, and then the Western Balkans, squeezed out of the enlargement agenda in recent years, take advantage of the more favorable political environment for enlargement, which still has many opponents within the Union and which has been prolonged by the request of the French president that the EU first reform itself, and only then accept new members?
The future of Ukraine is an important determinant for defining the future of the EU. Another important determinant is the political changes that took place in Germany. The third is internal, Montenegrin, which means that you have to work the hardest to achieve your goal. Until now, none of them clearly determine the chances of Montenegro quickly becoming a member of the union.
Podgorica and their neighbors did not lack optimism before, just as there was no lack of promises from Brussels. Still, apart from waving a stick and a carrot, nothing spectacular happened. Let’s remember that membership in the union for our region has been a moving target for more than 20 years. The closest to the European family, the Western Balkans was approached through the entrance to the anteroom called the European Political Community, which French President Emmanuel Macron devised using classical coaching – to “boost” our enthusiasm and work ethic.
“He hopes in vain,” say skeptics even now at Milojko’s expense. Nevertheless, is Spajić “shooting from an empty gun”, regardless of whether he is closer to the goal by achieving essential reforms or simply by changing the needs of the EU?
There are quite a few who think like Mike Lee, the former director-general for enlargement at the European Commission, who says that achieving that goal is unlikely. Lee and his like-minded people surely know that the geopolitical factor now has a stronger influence, which does not mean that it will be so in the next phase. I sincerely doubt, like the former EC official, that there is the necessary will of all EU members to put aside differences even in the name of geopolitics and to enable Montenegro to become a member – but one should be full of enthusiasm like Milojko Spajić.
The reason for optimism may possibly lie in the EU’s tactics to accept Montenegro and possibly Albania with a small “concession” in order to send a message to the rest that family expansion is still an issue. Although, if all members of the bloc would agree to this move, even 2030 as the year of accession sounds optimistic. If a country shows convincing progress in meeting the accession criteria, it could be possible to see one accession by then.
For Vladimir Pavićević, doctor of political science, it is even unpredictable where the European project could move next. However, he tells our magazine that there is no doubt that geopolitical conditions are an important factor for the possibility of Montenegro joining the European Union quickly. Pavićević also points out that there is a process within Montenegro itself that maintains this idea, and that is a strong fight against the mafia.
“We have never had such a dedicated fight against the mafia as we have today in the entire Montenegrin history. It is important to note that the credit for this belongs to the entire team of the Special State Prosecutor’s Office. With their work, they contribute the most today to the fact that there is faith in the rapid membership of Montenegro in the European Union”, assesses Pavićević.
The election of Donald Trump as president of the USA is an important determinant for the European future as well. Pavićević assumes that Trump will not be very interested in internal European dynamics. He reminded us that until now we have often had situations where American officials, with their statements, were trying to instruct us all about what will happen in Europe, but that he believes that this is changing now and that Europe will have to decide with more autonomy, including in the field of enlargement policy.
For Vladimir Pavićević, doctor of political science, it is unpredictable even where the European project could move next. However, he tells our magazine that there is no doubt that geopolitical conditions are an important factor for the possibility of Montenegro joining the European Union quickly. Pavićević also points out that there is a process within Montenegro itself that maintains this idea, and that is a strong fight against the mafia.
Montenegro in the role of a carrot on a stick?
Everyone loves movies with a happy ending, and European policymakers who understand that the tormented union and those languishing in the waiting room at their door need a successful story, for example about a small weak state that is taken under its wing by mother Europe. Montenegro is small, so they won’t even notice itin the European family because it could not possibly disrupt the internal state of the union, instead Montenegro inspires hope for others in the waiting room.
Berbok does not want Russian gray areas
The head of German diplomacy, Analena Berbock, advocates the rapid accession of the countries of the Western Balkans, Moldova and Ukraine, saying that “due to Russian aggression against Ukraine, EU enlargement becomes a geopolitical imperative.” She does not want to allow “gray zones” to exist in Europe in the future that will benefit Russia. For this reason, the head of German diplomacy believes that the expansion to the WB countries is in the common interest, in the interest of freedom and peace, and that Montenegro is at an advantage because it has been an ally in NATO for years.
You’re missing one more paper
The ambassadors of the EU countries are persistently unable to reach an agreement on the opening of Cluster 3 in the negotiations with Serbia, which is related to competitiveness and inclusive growth. European governments expect Serbia to make further progress in the area of the rule of law and the normalization of relations with Pristina. There are no shortage of messages of support from the EU for Belgrade, but “the window is not opening”. Talks on the accession of WB countries have been going on for 20 years, with different approaches from Brussels to the process, which, to put it simply, revolves around the famous abbreviation FTJP – you’re missing one more piece of paper. The moves of the EU have been frustrating the citizens of Serbia lately, especially those who are oriented towards membership.
Doctor of political sciences, Vladimir Pavićević, cannot speak about a certain European perspective of Serbia and the Republic of Serbia at this moment. He believes that we still have a period ahead of us in which we will move towards a decision on this.
“My view is that at this moment it would be a good move for Europe to immediately accept Serbia and Montenegro as a member and to open the perspective of membership for the entire region with that step. But we also have the opportunity to influence decisions that are in our interest – to be part of the EU as soon as possible.”
On the wings of Poland
Poland stood out as one of the loudest proponents of EU expansion to the countries of the Western Balkans. Her presidency of the Council of the Union is a great opportunity for the Balkan countries. The program of their presidency states that the EU must protect itself and its citizens, take care of its immediate neighborhood and give Europeans a sense of security and prospects for development. Poland thus clearly states that the security of Europe depends on the integration of a region that remains vulnerable to political crises and the influence of third parties such as Russia and China. The big question is how well Poland will overcome the resistance to enlargement within the union itself. France and the Netherlands are showing caution about expansion. Failure would further encourage Euroscepticism and strengthen the influence of non-European actors in the Balkans.