The World in 2024 Forecast

01 BRICS IS ALL GROWN UP

For years, BRICS has been treated in the West as a “union of half-competent” or “a union of capable and incompetent”, especially apostrophizing China’s rapid growth and its connection to “overpopulated” India and Russia, which is just a “petrol station with an army”, Brazil, who is “a giant on glass legs”, and South Africa, “a big disappointment after Mandela”. Today, it is evident that BRICS has become very powerful. The numbers might not matter, but 37% of the world’s oil production, 44% of the world’s reserves, and 47% of the world’s population as of January 1 will live in BRICS+, which now, as The Economist says, “has a purpose”. It is no longer just a bunch of “wannabes”, but it has truly wealthy nations like the UAE or Saudi Arabia.

What connects all these countries today? Nothing, if you look at it from a Western perspective: same-sex marriage is allowed in South Africa, homosexuality is highly punishable in Saudi Arabia, India and Brazil are democracies, while the Persian Gulf countries or China are not interested in Western democracy. Religiously, conventionally and civilizationally – they are all very different. But that is exactly the unifying factor – alter-globalism. All countries are allergic to outside interference and adhere to the old “I won’t touch you if you don’t touch me” principle. Other people’s differences are respected. In a world that since 1991, has become an intolerable field of moralizing, shoving lessons down one’s throat and punishments for not adopting “universal principles”, this is a real breath of fresh air. Argentina may turn its back on Javier Milei, but someone else will be more than happy to step in. If BRICS rejects the dollar in mutual payments and “rushes” to pay in local currencies or the yuan becomes stronger, it will become a new superpower, which is not necessarily democratic or anti-democratic and pro- or anti-anyone, but it is in favour of itself and does not want to be subjugated.

02 CHINA CANNOT BE SANCTIONED THAT EASILY

When the latest Huawei Mate came out, competitors bought it, took it apart and saw that it had a new chip, made in China, Which contains parts from countries that have imposed “chip sanctions” on China. Of course, this is the free world and shopping takes place in third-party markets. You can slow down China, but you will only make an enemy out of it. It is much wiser to act as Britain did when, after 1945, it realized that it had to give up the primacy in favour of the USA and the USSR and their conflict, and be on good terms with the USA, i.e. “the child that has grown so much”. It’s smarter to be on good terms with China because China will remember that you stopped it on its way to the top. The 1980s and the situation with the blockade of Japan will hardly be repeated. China is leading the way in high-speed rail and electric vehicles, so much so that it has become the largest exporter of electric vehicles in the world. The EU is left trailing behind China and Tesla, even though it is desperate to “go electric”.

If the yuan starts to replace the dollar, it will be a real paradigm shift. Don’t fall for the “Doomsday Trumpets” over the China problem. Western newspapers are full of “predictions of China’s doom”, be it because of the housing sector, low birth rate or young people being demotivated, while eastern newspapers are brimming with “the predictions of the imminent doom of the USA” due to the ideological division between the two Americas, identity issues, migrants, etc. In reality, none of these powers will falter. The battle of the giants is just about to start and let’s hope it stays on this plane forever.

03 ARABIA IS NEW EUROPE

Mohammed bin Salman is the mouth behind these words. What he meant by that is that by 2030 or 2035, the Arabian Peninsula (with the exception, apparently, of unfortunate Yemen, if something does not change), that is Saudi Arabia, the UAE, Qatar, Kuwait, Bahrain and Oman, will have become the “new EU”, or the centre of the world. This seems rather ambitious, but we are not talking only about building huge facilities in Saudi Arabia or buying footballers – Qatar hosted the World Cup in 2022, while the Saudis are preparing for their own in 2034. High-speed railways are being built across the Emirates, their cities look like something out of Star Wars, and the biggest transport companies in the world are coincidentally, right there, almost all of them are in Asia, including giants like Emirates and Qatar Airlines. Most people’s layovers on their way to Asia, Australia and Africa, are in Arab countries. Dubai, although architecturally questionable, is one of the capitals of the world, and Abu Dhabi, a much more harmonious city, has its version of Louvre and is building more museums. The Arabian Peninsula is becoming a force to watch.

04 JAVIER MILEI OR THE FIRST LIBERTARIAN AS A COUNTRY PRESIDENT

He will either be the saviour of the nation or this will be the most spectacular collapse of a state that is not caused by a foreign attack. We have already seen Argentina collapse in 2001 and the “silent suffering” of all these years. Now, Milei, the country’s new president, wants to abolish the Central Bank and the Ministry of Education and dollarize the country’s economy, thus effectively abolishing the peso. There is a small problem with this idea as Argentina doesn’t have as many dollars as its value, so for now, the peso will continue to be used, suffering a strong devaluation – from 350 to 800 pesos to 1 dollar. Milei also supports freedom of choice regarding drug policy, guns, prostitution, same-sex marriage, sexual preference and gender identity, while opposing abortion and euthanasia.

He is also in favour of cutting economic ties with “socialist” Brazil and China and believes that freedom to bear arms, invest and exit BRICS (before even joining) and Mercosul (the Southern common market) will aid the economy, even though Mercosul countries are Argentina’s biggest trading partners. He favours close cooperation with the US but wants to talk to the UK about the Falklands, by which he already alienated the British. This flamboyant character is embarking on a path that is much more extreme than Trump’s or Bolsonaro’s (who never thought of leaving BRICS or stopping trade with China).

05 GLOBAL TAXES AND GLOBAL ARTIFICIAL INTELLIGENCE

In 2021, more than 130 countries reached an agreement to “put their foot down” on tax evasion and tax havens and 2024 will be the year when the tax hunt intensifies. Many multinational companies file their tax reports in tax havens, which is why Ireland is apparently a disproportionately rich country whose citizens, therefore, should live better than people in Luxembourg. But they don’t because it’s just a numbers game. Now, indeed, the tax will be a “minimum of 15%” in all countries where a multinational company makes money and the Americans are quite furious with their tech giants, while the rest of the world, especially the EU, has no intention of letting them get away with it. An interesting tax battle promises to take place in 2024.

On the other hand, AI is trained from the “body of knowledge” that consists of all available knowledge and in the case of copyrighted works, it allows the possibility of combination and processing to the utmost limit, without having to pay anything for copyright. Screenwriters in Hollywood have already revolted and it looks like 2024 will see better regulation of this market, so that everyone whose works are used to train AI will receive a share of the copyright, regardless of whether the AI used their work or not.

07 GLOBAL RIGHT-WING AND POPULISM

Javier Milei is not the only talk of the town, although he is the most flamboyant politician in power at the moment. Donald Trump could return as the US president. Many countries choose right-wing candidates because in the era of developed security, we are still locking our doors and are prone to „ours“ vs „theirs“ division.  Apart from the almost certain victory of Labour in the UK and the recent victory of the Democrats in Poland, the world seems to be moving in the direction of right and populism again, which is not strange. When the classical left and right disappeared and became something “extreme”, left centre, right centre and eventually “central centre” emerged. They all offer a very similar option. Citizens vote and governments change, but their wishes remain unanswered. Then they elect populists, to the dismay of the establishment, because populists are the only ones who can “fulfil their wishes”. As it happens in all this, the capitalists once again score the most and generate the biggest profit. Have we crossed the “limit of civil tolerance” if the majority in the Netherlands voted for Geert Wilders, or in Germany for the AfD? Is the line crossed if Herbert Kickl is the most popular politician in Austria? All of these votes are clear warnings to the establishment and it’s worth thinking about your policies before voters circle the option that will do what they think and want.